Combination Prediction of Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents in China Based on IOWA Operator

نویسندگان

چکیده

Aims: Based on the income data of urban and rural residents in China from 1998 to 2021, gap variables were constructed, combination prediction method was used predict between China.
 Methodology: Grey model GM (1,1), Holt-winter seasonless exponential smoothing autoregressive moving average ARIMA construct an order weighted arithmetic mean induced by IOWA with minimum sum error squares. Then, building new weights, three individual forecasting models are forecast next five years.
 Results: The results show that accuracy combined is significantly better than single model.
 Conclusion: It can be known will widen further future, growth rate 4.55%.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2582-0230']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2023/v22i4490